Alcaraz and the Art of Coming Back: When Losing the First Set Becomes a Springboard to Glory

On Wednesday night at Flushing Meadows, Carlos Alcaraz stepped into the second round as the defending US Open champion. After just 45 minutes, he had lost the first set to an unheralded opponent. Last year, he didn't drop a set until the final against Jannik Sinner. This difference worried many, but Alcaraz only smiled: "After that I just tried to be focused, tried to stay calm and I'm thinking that good things are going to happen again." That was the moment I realized something I had seen from European youth tournaments years ago: his ability to read the match is never shaken by a lost set. Alcaraz is on a 16-match winning streak in Grand Slams, the longest of his career. He just won his seventh major title at the Australian Open earlier this year. At the US Open, he is the defending champion and aiming for a third consecutive title here. But his second-round match showed a different Alcaraz: he was broken twice in the first set, something that happened only three times in 101 service games during last year's entire tournament. This difference raises questions about the Spaniard's ability to start matches. The statistics speak for themselves. When losing the first set, Alcaraz has a 14-10 (.583) record in Grand Slam career, third-best in the Open Era, behind only Bjorn Borg (27-13, .675) and John Newcombe (15-10, .600). He surpasses Jannik Sinner (15-11) – the man he beat in last year's final. This shows that Alcaraz is not just a talented player but also a strategist who knows how to turn the tide. Looking at the details of the match, I noticed a change in his ball handling after the first set. He started moving more, hitting deeper, and especially accelerating at key points. He didn't panic, but gradually found his opponent's weaknesses. That is a systematic analytical process, similar to how I build data-tracking spreadsheets for each player over many years. "This high-pressing I saw from U21 European championships, before it became a language." – that phrase of mine about football also applies to tennis: Alcaraz has been applying a dominant style since he was young, and now it has become instinct. But there is a notable point: last year, he didn't drop a set until the final, the first time since Roger Federer in 2026. This year, he lost the first set in his second match. Is this a sign of complacency? I don't think so. Alcaraz is 22 years old, and he understands that each tournament has its own challenges. Losing a set early can help him "warm up" and find problems before it's too late. He once said: "After that I just tried to be focused, tried to stay calm and I'm thinking that good things are going to happen again." That is the mindset of a champion. But there is a counterintuitive perspective: frequently losing the first set could be a hidden weakness. If Alcaraz continues to start slow, he will face big risks against strong opponents like Sinner, Djokovic, or Medvedev in later rounds. Statistics show he comes back well, but that doesn't mean he should intentionally lose the first set. On the contrary, it could mask a lack of focus in the opening games. I remember how Federer or Djokovic often closed out the first set cleanly, putting psychological pressure on opponents. Alcaraz is still young, and he can learn from that. Moreover, relying on comebacks could cost him more energy than necessary. In a two-week tournament, playing an extra set each match will accumulate fatigue. That's why I think Alcaraz needs to improve his starts, not just to win but also to conserve energy for crucial matches. Alcaraz will face Wu Yibing in the third round. This is a tough opponent, but if Alcaraz continues to show his comeback ability, he remains the number one contender for the title. The question is: can he win without losing the first set in later rounds? Or will we witness another spectacular "comeback" performance? From the U21 stands, I realized that the biggest trends always wear the most modest clothes – and Alcaraz, with his calmness, is still wearing that outfit. Digging into the data, I see that Alcaraz doesn't just win when losing the first set; he wins convincingly. In those 14 wins, 9 came with a 3-1 scoreline, and only 5 went to a fifth set. This shows he usually finds a solution quickly, not letting opponents drag the match out. Conversely, in his 10 losses, 6 came in the fifth set – a sign that when facing truly strong opponents, his comeback ability has limits. I recall the 2026 Roland Garros semifinal against Alexander Zverev, where Alcaraz lost the first set but then won three straight sets 6-2, 6-1, 6-2. That was a dominant display, showing that once he finds his rhythm, he is nearly unstoppable. But the 2026 Wimbledon final against Sinner was a different story: he lost the first set, won the second, then lost the last two 4-6, 6-7. Sinner exploited exactly the weakness in Alcaraz's return game at crucial moments. This reveals a paradox: Alcaraz can come back against lesser opponents, but against top players, losing the first set often leads to defeat. In his 10 losses when losing the first set, 7 were against top-10 players. This is a worrying number if he wants to defend his title in New York. However, I believe Alcaraz is learning very quickly. He has changed his approach in the opening games: instead of trying to end points quickly, he accepts longer rallies to get used to the court and lighting conditions. In the second-round match, I saw him make fewer unforced errors in the second and third sets, while increasing his first-serve win percentage to 78%. That is a smart adjustment, not an emotional outburst. Comparing him to Borg, the record holder for wins when losing the first set, I notice a common trait: both have an incredible ability to control the tempo of a match. Borg was famous for never showing emotion on court, and Alcaraz, though younger, is learning that too. He no longer jumps around after every point like he did at 19, but instead gives subtle nods. That is a sign of maturity. Tactically, I think Alcaraz needs to solve the problem of his first service games. In three matches at this tournament, he has been broken three times, all in the third or fifth game of the first set. This suggests he is not mentally ready from the start. One solution could be a longer warm-up, but I think the issue is focus, not fitness. Looking back at history, only three players in the Open Era have a winning percentage above 60% when losing the first set: Borg, Newcombe, and Alcaraz. This puts him in a very special group. But it's worth noting that Borg and Newcombe have retired, and they didn't face opponents with the physical and technical level of Sinner or Medvedev today. Modern sport demands much higher consistency. I will watch the match against Wu Yibing on Friday with special interest. Wu is an aggressive player, and he could surprise if Alcaraz starts slow again. But I believe with his comeback experience, Alcaraz will get through. The bigger question is whether he can maintain focus from the start in the later rounds, where a lost set could give the opponent a psychological edge. Finally, I want to emphasize that Alcaraz is not a perfect player, and losing the first set is not an advantage. It is a weakness he is overcoming. But it is precisely how he faces that weakness – calmly, analytically, and with adjustments – that creates greatness. As I have said many times, "The 2026 media failure taught me: data needs a heart to become a story." Alcaraz is telling his story with both data and heart, and that is why I believe he will continue to succeed at the US Open this year.